During recent decades climate observations and proxy data, along with climate model simulations, have provided increased opportunities to understand the reasons for past climate variation and to reduce uncertainties in projections of future climate changes (IPCC 2007). However, there is much randomness in both proxy data and model simulations, and more uncertainties are added when performing model-data comparisons on various temporal and spatial scales. The Climate Statistics Group has an established collaboration with researchers in palaeoclimatology (i.e. climate of the past) at the Bolin Centre (http://www.bbcc.su.se). Currently the group and its collaborators are developing and refining new and improved methods for jointly evaluating proxy reconstructions and climate model simulations.

People working in this area include: Gudrun Brattström (senior lecturer), Ekaterina Fetisova (graduate student) and Rolf Sundberg (professor). Starting 2013, a four-year project on climate statistics has received funding from the Swedish Research Council within the call for proposals ”Statistics in the empirical sciences”.

Recent publications:

  • Sundqvist H S, Zhang Q, Moberg A, Holmgren K, Körnich H, Nilsson J, Brattström G: Climate change between the mid and late Holocene in northern high latitudes – Part 1: Survey of temperature and precipitation proxy data, Clim. Past, 6, 591-608, doi:10.5194/cp-6-591-2010, 2010.
  • Moberg A, Brattström G: Prediction intervals for climate reconstructions with autocorrelated noise – An analysis of ordinary least squares and measurement error methods, Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, 308, 313–329, doi: 10.1016/j.palaeo.2011.05.035, 2011.
  • McCarroll D, Hicks S, Loader N, Moberg A, Brázdil R, Wilson R, Austin W, Wheeler D, Jalkanen R, Wagner-Cremer R, Scourse J, Butler P, Gagen M, González-Rouco F, Hind A, Kamenik C, Riemann D, Robertson I, Rosqvist N, Sundberg R, Yamazaki H, Young G, Zorita E, the Millennium team: Millennium - European cliamte of the last millennium, Final Report 2011, FP 6: SUSTDEV-2004-3.1.3.1. Contract No. 017008.
  • Ljungqvist F C, Krusic P J, Brattström G, Sundqvist H S: Northern Hemisphere temperature patterns in the last 12 centuries, Clim. Past, 8, 227-249, doi:10.5194/cp-8-227-2012, 2012.
  • Hind A, Moberg A, Sundberg R, Grudd H, Brattström G, Caballero R, Zorita E: A GCM-reality intercomparison for the last millennium, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 14, EGU2012-7537, 2012.
  • Fetisova E: Multiple measurement error regression with autocorrelated errors in predictors as a prediction method, Master’s thesis 2012.
  • Sundberg R, Moberg A, Hind A: Statistical framework for evaluation of climate model simulations by use of climate proxy data from the last millennium – Part 1: Theory, Clim. Past, 8, 1339-1353, doi:10.5194/cp-8-1339-2012, 2012.
  • Hind A, Moberg A, Sundberg R: Statistical framework for evaluation of climate model simulations by use of climate proxy data from the last millennium – Part 2: A pseudo-proxy study addressing the amplitude of solar forcing, Clim. Past, 8, 1355-1365, doi:10.5194/cp-8-1355-2012, 2012.